By Sadie Moore
One staple of American democracy is the balance of powers between the three branches of government: the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. As seen during the Obama administration, it can be very difficult for the president to fully implement his/her agenda if the majority in Congress is of the other party and vice versa. Currently, the US has a Republican president and a split Congress; the Senate Republicans hold a 53-47 majority and the House Democrats hold a 235-200 majority. In the 2020 presidential election, the Democrats are hoping to elect Joe Biden and enact his more progressive policies. However, in order to do so, it is essential that they have a majority in both houses of Congress. In order to regain control of the Senate, the Democrats must take back 4 seats (in case there is a Republican presidency, the vice president, who is the president of the Senate, will break the tie).
The UWCSEA Political Newsletter Review predicts these results in the upcoming 2020 US Senate races (predictions from the Cook Political Report):
There are 35 seats up for reelection in total, 12 of which are held by Democrats and 23 of which are held by Republicans. 15 of those seats are potentially competitive, and FiveThirtyEight.com predicts that the Democrats have a 74% chance of regaining control of the Senate. Our predictions for the most competitive seats are as follows:
Democratic-held Seats
Doug Jones- Alabama: Lean Republican
In the 2017 special election following Jeff Sessions’ resignation to become US Attorney General, Doug Jones, a moderate Democrat who had previously served as US Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, narrowly beat Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore by a margin of only 1.63% (21,924 votes). This is despite nine women accusing him of inappropriate sexual conduct, including sexual assault, with multiple claiming they were underaged at the time. In 2016, Republican President Donald Trump won the state by 14 points. Jones’ Republican challenger, retired college football coach Tommy Tuberville, is currently leading in the polls by 15 points (55%-40%). We predict that it would be very difficult for Doug Jones to win reelection in such a deeply red state, and therefore Alabama will lean Republican.
Gary Peters- Michigan: Lean Democratic
Gary Peters, Democratic Senator from Michigan since 2015 and former Representative of Michigan’s 14th congressional district, is facing off against Republican John James, a young African-American veteran and business owner who previously ran and lost against incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow in 2018 and is considered a rising star in the GOP. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is leading by 7 points in the state, but incumbent Senator Peters is only leading by 4. Michigan certainly has the capacity to go red (the usually blue state went for Trump in 2016), but we predict that Sen. Peters will pull through.
Republican-held Seats
Martha McSally- Arizona: Lean Democratic
Republican Martha McSally, who narrowly lost in the 2018 Senate race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, was appointed by Governor Doug Ducey following the death of Sen. John McCain and the resignation of his appointed successor Jon Kyl. Her challenger, Mark Kelly, former astronaut, engineer, and Navy captain, and husband to former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, has been consistently leading her in the polls, right now by 8 points. This signifies a shift in Arizona’s demographics; the state went for Trump in 2016, but Biden is currently leading there by 8 points. Kelly’s campaign has significantly outraised McSally’s; Kelly has raised $82 million in total, while McSally raised $49 million. We predict a victory for challenger Mark Kelly in this election.
Cory Gardner- Colorado: Lean Democratic
Colorado, a swing state which has consistently gone blue in the recent presidential elections, including 2016’s, is one of two states (the other being Maine) to have gone blue in 2016 and have a Republican senator up for reelection in 2020 (Cory Gardner, senator since 2015). Gardner, who has served since 2015, did not support Trump in the 2016 elections, but flip-flopped after Trump was elected. Trump, who has a 57% disapproval rating in Colorado, seems to be dragging Gardner down with him, and despite Gardner’s attempts to emphasize his environmental record with the Great American Outdoors Act, popular former governor John Hickenlooper is leading him 51%-42% in the polls. We predict a narrow victory for Hickenlooper in this race.
Kelly Loeffler- Georgia: Tossup
In a special election, all candidates are placed on the ballot, no matter party affiliation, and if no candidate reaches 50%, a runoff election occurs in the following January. Incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed in 2020 by Gov. Brian Kemp after the resignation of Sen. Johnny Isakson is running against Republican Doug Collins and Democrats Raphael Warnock, Matt Lieberman, and Ed Tarver. Currently, the plurality of voters support Atlanta pastor Raphael Warnock, at 32%, while 23% support Loeffler, 17% support Collins, 7% support Lieberman, and 2% for Tarver. The pollster Siena College put Warnock 4 points ahead of both Loeffler and Collins, but seeing as the field still hasn’t narrowed down yet, it is impossible to predict who will ultimately win this race.
David Perdue- Georgia: Tossup
In another election in Georgia, Republican incumbent David Perdue (senator since 2015) is locked in a tough race with Democratic media executive Jon Ossoff, who previously ran for Georgia’s 6th congressional district in 2018. Perdue’s campaign has been recently marred with controversy due to a mishap in which he seemingly mocked Sen. and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris’ name. According to a Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group poll, Ossoff currently has 48% compared to Perdue’s 43%, and therefore a small lead. However, due to the margin of error, this is still considered a tossup race.
Joni Ernst- Iowa: Tossup
Joni Ernst, a Republican and Army veteran serving since 2015, is facing tough competition with Theresa Greenfield, who previously ran for Iowa’s 3rd congressional district in 2018. Iowa, which Trump won in 2016 by 3 points, is a moderately conservative state, but has seen a progressive shift recently. Ernst’s recent stumble over the price of soybeans in a debate has given Greenfield’s campaign a boost, and according to FiveThirtyEight.com, she currently has a 56% chance of winning the election. However, this is still within the poll’s margin of error, and therefore this election is deemed a tossup.
Susan Collins- Maine: Tossup
Along with Cory Gardner, Collins is one of only two Republican senators seeking reelection this year in a state that went blue in 2016. Susan Collins (senator since 1997), who is considered a moderate Republican, has the lowest approval ratings of any Senator right now following her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court in 2018 as well as her vote to acquit President Trump earlier this year. Her challenger is Democrat Sara Gideon, the Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives. Both have enjoyed endorsements from famous politicians, including former presidents; Collins was endorsed by George W. Bush and Gideon by Barack Obama. FiveThirtyEight.com gives Gideon a 63% chance of winning this November, but we still rank this race a tossup.
Steve Daines- Montana: Tossup
Incumbent Republican Steve Daines (senator since 2015) was thought to be surely reelected in 2020 with no serious opposition until popular Democratic governor Steve Bullock announced his candidacy for the Senate seat on the last day to file for the primaries; this race is now considered quite competitive. FiveThirtyEight.com predicts that Sen. Daines has a 67% chance of winning reelection, however, many pollsters still rank this race a tossup, such as the Cook Political Report, CNN, and Politico. Despite Montana being an extremely rural and conservative state in which Donald Trump won by 11 points in 2016, Montana is surely capable of flipping; the state already has a Democratic governor and a Democratic senator, Jon Tester. We classify this race as a tossup.
Thom Tillis- North Carolina: Tossup
North Carolina, as a battleground state, was won by Donald Trump in 2016 by a small margin, but has historically gone both ways (for example, Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008). Incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis (serving since 2015) is very unpopular in the state, only holding a 26% approval rating, perhaps due to Tillis’ vote for President Trump’s emergency declaration even after penning an op-ed stating that he wouldn’t do so. His challenger, Cal Cunningham, is an Army veteran and former state senator who previously ran for a Senate seat in 2010. Cunningham enjoyed (and still holds) a small lead over Tillis despite a recent sexting scandal. FiveThirtyEight.com puts Cunningham 6 points ahead of Sen. Tillis, so this race is also considered a tossup.
Lindsey Graham- South Carolina: Tossup
South Carolina is a moderately conservative state in which Donald Trump won by 8 points; however, the Senate race is a surprisingly tough one for incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham (first elected in 2002). Sen. Graham has garnered notable media attention since March 2017 when despite being an ardent critic of President Trump, he made an unpredicted reversal to become one of the president’s staunchest supporters. The significant dislike of Sen. Graham nationwide as well as the rising popularity of Democratic challenger and former chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party Jaime Harrison have contributed to Harrison receiving $57 million in campaign donations (Graham raised only $28 million). FiveThirtyEight.com shows mixed polling in this race; Siena College placed Graham 6 points ahead of Harrison while Morning Consult put Harrison 2 points ahead of Graham. At this point, it is impossible to make a prediction; we rank this a tossup.
Dan Sullivan- Alaska: Lean Republican
Alaska has consistently been a very conservative state; Donald Trump won the state by 9 points in 2016. However, orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats, has generated more support than expected; the pollster Public Policy Polling put Gross only 3 points behind incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan (serving since 2015). This will presumably be a close race, however we expect that Alaska will lean Republican.
Open Seat- Kansas: Lean Republican
After Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for another term, the major candidates running to fill the open seat are Republican Representative Roger Marshall of Kansas’ 1st congressional district and Democratic state senator Barbara Bollier. Bollier is formerly a Republican, but changed her party affiliation in 2018. In 2016, Donald Trump won Kansas by 13 points, and the state is generally considered to be a solid Republican stronghold. However, in this election, most predictors consider this upcoming race to tilt or lean Republican, as do we.
John Cornyn- Texas: Lean Republican
As Texas becomes bluer and bluer, there is significant promise for Democratic candidates running for statewide office; just two years ago, Beto O’Rourke set the record for most votes cast for a Democrat in Texas history. Incumbent John Cornyn, senator since 2002, is being challenged by Air Force veteran and former candidate for Texas’ 31st congressional district MJ Hegar. The majority of pollsters rate this election as leaning or likely to go Republican; we rate this election as lean Republican.
Mitch McConnell- Kentucky: Likely Republican
Mitch McConnell, who has been a senator from Kentucky since 1985 and Senate Majority Leader since 2015, was the most unpopular senator until he was surpassed by Maine Sen. Susan Collins in 2018, currently holding a 50% disapproval rating in Kentucky. His opponent, former US Marine fighter pilot and candidate for Kentucky’s 6th congressional district in 2018 Amy McGrath, has raised about $6 million more than Sen. McConnell. However, Kentucky is an R+15 state; further, McGrath lost her House race in a historically much more Democratic district than the state of Kentucky. Many pollsters rank McConnell’s seat as likely or safely Republican; we rank this election to go likely Republican.
According to our predictions, we will almost surely see a victory for the Democrats on election day this year.
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