By: Roye Ganju
Welcome to the Ukraine Desk, UPR’s daily blog on the tensions in Ukraine. I’m Roye and I’ll be guiding you through the day’s events: on the frontlines, in the negotiating room and beyond. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments and I’ll try to reply as soon as I can. Updates to this article will be made every day or if required more frequently, so feel free to bookmark the article and check for updates periodically.
Update #5:
There’s no better way to put it but war is here. What diplomacy wanted to prevent is now an unfortunate reality that we all must live through.
In many ways, I have tried to make sure that these updates stay journalistic, that I keep a level head when I write anything, to see the views on both sides. This is impossible now. With reports of cruise and ballistic missiles hitting Kyiv, a city of almost 3 million people, I cannot in good conscience keep myself as balanced as I would like to. There has since the beginning of this conflict been no shortage of aggression from Russia. The buildup of Russian troops on the border was clearly a sign of Putin trying to bully his nation’s little brother. Yet we ignored the warnings. Many of us took the opportunity of the US announcing new invasion dates to switch our minds off and to make light of an existential threat.
But hindsight will not save us. Hindsight will not rectify the situation we are in and hindsight will not intercept any missiles. Ukraine deserves its freedom and we must help the Ukrainian people in their fight for it.
Update #4:
In many ways writing the update tonight feels surreal, it feels as if one is writing an introduction to a generic 80s spy novel, sans the USSR. As the convoys of Russian troops and weapons moved into the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) under the cover of night, it felt as though something big had been set into motion. The very first update of this series had included in it a paragraph on the recognition of the LPR and DPR by the Duma. Although it may have seemed insignificant a week ago, we seem to be living in a world that has drastically changed over the last few days.
Recognition
The first point of discussion today is the agreements regarding the recognition of the LPR and DPR signed by Vladimir Putin, Denis Pushilin (President of the DPR) and Leonid Pasechnik. They are wide-ranging but some of their key aspects were objected to by most members of the international community. The agreements have given Moscow wide-ranging powers to act within the now ‘sovereign’ People’s Republics, including those of establishing military bases within the territories of these entities. At an emergency session of the UNSC, the delegate of Ukraine was quick to point out the similarities of the agreements signed this year with those signed 14 years ago, when the Russians used the pretext of protecting South Ossetia’s independence to invade Georgia. Despite being pressed by CNN, Bloomberg and the BBC, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov only stated that the Russian Federation recognises the two republics in the borders ‘in which they proclaim themselves’. When asked for further comment, he declined and decided to repeat the above phrase a couple of times before moving on. With the area which the People’s Republics currently claim as theirs being under the control of Ukraine, this present definition could be sufficient reason in the eyes of Moscow to ‘invade’ Ukraine.
Sanctions
That brings me to my second point of discussion, is this an invasion and if so what actions are the West taking against Russia? According to a statement just released by the UK, they consider the fact that the Russian Army has moved into the Donbas as reason enough to call the present situation an invasion. A senior American official in a call with the press however has stated that the presence of non-uniformed Russians in the Donbas for the past eight years would mean that the current status on the ground cannot be classified as an invasion. Regardless, some of the actions presently taken by Western nations have been the rollout of sanctions on entities such as Russian banks, members of the Duma and several oligarchs. Germany has also cancelled its controversial Nord Stream-2 pipeline in light of the conflict, something that it was urged to do by its fellow nations in the EU.
As both sides now trade allegations of using heavy weaponry such as the Grad Multiple Launch Rocket Systems and reports of machine-gun fire in Horlivka emerge, the fear of direct confrontations increases. One Russian Grad barrage has also hit an important power plant in Schastiya, cutting off many areas on the border from electricity. This just serves as a reminder of the human impact of this crisis, we can only wait and see how everyone plays their cards in a geopolitical game where lives are at stake.
On a darkly lighter note, the video below shows that when it comes to being questioned by the man himself, not even Putin’s spymaster is safe.
Update #3:
Whether or not Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine is up for debate, but he has certainly decided to completely change the way I write my updates. Over the weekend, I held off from writing any new updates due to what will be the main focus of my update tonight: False Flags.
For the last three days, people living in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics have been inundated with alarmism from their own governments and with shells of unknown origin. As women and children were ‘evacuated’ into parts of Russia in buses and trains, men between the ages of 18 to 55 are being conscripted in the Donbass, in some cases, allegedly in a forcible manner. Shelling has increased from around 6-8 in a day to reaching between 150-160 daily, according to Ukraine’s Joint Forces Operation.
However, the issue of using false flag attacks to build a casus belli against Ukraine is tonight’s main point of conversation. Over the last few days, there has been a range of alleged attacks by Ukrainian operatives in the Donbass, ranging from a car bomb blowing up the Minister of Security’s car in Donetsk, a shell hitting a Russian border checkpoint in the Rostov Oblast to a purported incursion near Mariupol by Ukrainian Special Forces. All of these have been accompanied by spotty evidence and in some cases, such as that of the aforementioned ‘evacuations’ were accompanied by a video that was made and edited many days before there was any sign of an escalation in the conflict.
The most recent ‘false flag’ as of the writing of this update might end up being the most consequential one in this entire conflict. According to the Southern Military District of Russia and with reporting in state media, five Ukrainians were killed attempting to enter Russia outside the town of Mityakinskaya in Rostov Oblast. Unlike the other false flags which were reported by rebel militias, this was unusually reported by the Russian military itself and has, according to analysts, the potential to be the casus belli that Putin has been waiting for.
With the leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in Moscow, a Russian National Security Council meeting and an approaching session of the Duma which Putin plans to address, the 21st and 22nd of February promise to be pivotal dates in the fight over Ukraine and its future.
Update #2:
When it comes to writing about the tensions in Ukraine, one cannot plan ahead about the contents of an update as the situation on the ground is always changing. The events of the past few hours have been a massive escalation in tensions along the border between the People’s Republics and Ukraine. With confirmation from the Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Reuters and even visuals posted online, there has been a sudden uptick in the number of ceasefire violations. One major flashpoint in these violations has been the village of Stanytsia Luhanska. Separatist media outlets have rushed to claim that a kindergarten in Stanytsia Luhanska, struck by shells, was within the borders of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), contrary to the fact that the village is located in Ukraine and is not presently held by the rebel groups. With both sides trying to win the information battle, the intelligence battle is getting hazier day by day.
What is most interesting about these ceasefire violations as compared to the dozens that have been taking place in the past weeks is how Russian state media have taken the opportunity to not only condemn the Ukrainian side but also to offer increasingly bellicose (aggressive and showing a willingness to fight) rhetoric. In an article posted on the front page of RIA Novosti’s website, there are several major claims made as to the violations of the ceasefire. Towards the beginning of the article, there is a claim made that the Donbas was, prior to the revolution of 1917, a part of Russia. This tall claim is followed up with more claims about the nature of the violations, culminating with the article accusing the West of fabricating a ‘pretext’ to station weaponry and encroach upon the sovereignty of Russia.
‘Pretext’, defined as a reason given in justification of a course of action that isn’t the real reason, is a word that will be thrown around a lot over the course of the next couple of days from both sides in the conflict. Dmitry Peskov, the long-time spokesman for President Putin, also held a press conference that had some key highlights. Although Peskov tried to assuage the fears of an armed standoff by reporting that the situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border is indeed ‘stable’, his press conference did involve allegations that the Ukrainians were building a military presence along the border with Donbas. The worry being generated by these statements is only being amplified by Peskov’s usage of the phrase: ‘Provocative Actions that have only intensified in the last day’. To those familiar, this was the exact word-for-word statement issued by Peskov a day before the invasion of Georgia in 2008. Similarly, a newly announced investigation into ‘mass graves in the Donbas’ is generating more concerns that Russia is creating the casus belli for an invasion through its interests in the Donbas.
Nobody is sure if this situation will escalate but at this point, the situation is highly volatile. With tensions this high, could either side ever even consider a retreat?
Update #1:
The 15th of February has the potential to be one of the most consequential dates of this conflict. The main developments of the day can be summarized into 3 main points - Russia’s Announcement of Withdrawals, A Cyberattack on Ukrainian Institutions and The Duma’s Motion to Recognise the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.
Early in the day, the Russian Government announced the withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian border and Crimea after tactical exercises involving units from the Southern and Western Military Districts had finished. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Maria Zakharova stated that February the 15th ‘will go into history as the day western war propaganda failed.’, ‘disgraced and destroyed without a single shot being fired.’ This comment rides the coattails of a months-long narrative in Russian media accusing the Americans of whipping up trouble in Ukraine, for example, a headline in RIA Novosti reads that ‘The Main Goal of [The US] Deploying Troops is to create a Threat to Russia’. Along with this aggressive statement of peaceful intent and the media narrative in Russia turning on the Americans, videos by Russia Today and the Zvezda TV (Both funded by the state, with Zvezda TV being run by the Russian Ministry of Defence) were purported to show the withdrawal of troops from ‘border areas’ and Crimea. In the case of the video from Russia Today, The Centre for Information Resilience geolocated one of the several short clips in the montage to the city of Bakhchysaray in Crimea, around 180 kilometres away from mainland Ukraine. The Guardian’s Moscow correspondent Andrew Roth also reported that the 3rd and 150th motor rifle divisions ‘withdrew’ from Crimea to bases just ‘a few dozen kilometres’ from Ukraine. As the Kremlin continues to push the narrative of de-escalation, many in Ukraine and its allied nations are still wary of what is happening on the ground.
Later on the 15th, the Duma passed a motion to recognise the two breakaway Republics in the Donbas, the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The motion passed by the Duma was surprisingly not proposed by Putin’s own United Russia party but rather by the opposition Communists. With support from all major parties, the vote passed decisively, however, Vladimir Putin did not wish to entertain the proposal so quickly. In a press conference, he said that despite the Ukrainians were committing a ‘genocide’ in the Donbas, the motion from the Duma would subvert the Minsk Agreements signed in 2014, which have relatively cemented the situation in the Donbas till now. Putin’s careful embrace of the Minsk Agreements is to many observers a sign of diplomacy’s triumph. Whether it is too early to claim this as a victory, is only something time will tell.
The last big development of the 15th was a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack on Ukrainian institutions such as government websites and the state-owned Oschadbank and Privatbank banks. The DDoS attack paralysed these websites and apps for a few hours and as of writing is still ongoing. The Kremlin has denied all allegations that it is behind the attack, however, according to ABC, the Department of Homeland Security has warned in the past that the risk of cyber attacks on the US are also high at this time. It’s clear that the hostilities in Ukraine may not be confined to only the frontlines but may also affect the online world.
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Loved this series, keep up with the good work!
This is truly amazing, very insightful