By Ishaan Patel
On February 27th, Germany announced a stunning reversal of previous foreign policy; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that it had increased the defence budget to 100 billion euros, or above 2% of its GDP.
Such a feat is groundbreaking, to say the least. A few weeks earlier, Germany was dovish on the Russian buildup on the Ukrainian border compared to their more aggressive allies such as the UK and the US. Opting for a diplomatic solution, perhaps due to its close economic ties to Russia, including important gas and oil pipelines, which supplied a third of its gas and oil. And in addition, German companies are closely tied to Russia - Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest lender, has an exposure of about 2.1 billion SGD. Germany was also somewhat reluctant to provide military aid to Ukraine, infamously offering 5000 helmets for its armed forces. At the same time, other western countries like the UK and the US sent Anti-Air defence systems and anti-tank weapons like NLAWs and Javelins. And while it seemed like Germany would offer a milder punishment to Russia in the event of a Russian invasion, the result was far from it. The reaction to the invasion was far from a strongly worded letter asking Putin to stop; no, what instead occurred was a tectonic shift of Germany's foreign policy and a complete overhaul of the values of a modern German Republic.
The Origins of Pacifism
One can argue that Germany was an extremely militaristic nation for most of its lifetime. The origins of Germany, in fact, came from the Kingdom of Prussia, a nation highly revered for its acumen of its armed forces(Voltaire famously described the nation as 'an army with a state'). However, as the hyper-martial and bellicose Nazi regime fell in 1945, the allies did not simply rebuild Germany into a modern republic(or, in the Soviet's case, a socialist puppet regime). They destroyed any chances of Germany becoming a true, sufficient military threat to the fabric of Europe, crushing any prospects of military revivalism. The allies didn't just shape a state resistant to militarism and jingoism, but one where pacifism was cemented into its foreign policy mindset. And despite moves to federalisation in Western Europe and Germany's increasing geopolitical importance in Europe, pacifism remained deeply ingrained in German society.
Reversal of Policy
Following the collapse of the Iron Curtain and the emergence of a unified German state, which turned Germany into the most robust economy in Europe, there was still great hesitation from Germany to turn into a European leader - at least militarily. Germany refused to help NATO operations in Bosnia - despite widespread reports of Serbian ethnic cleansing. Germany refused to lend support in Syria with the NATO coalition there, despite the atrocious crimes committed by Bashar-Al-Assad - including gassing his civilians. And despite multiple attempts by a new belligerent Russian state to disrupt the fabric of Europe and bring former soviet states under Russian influence, Germany continued to be more dependent on Russian gas. Germany didn't seem all too certain to take up the mantle - and assert the rights and importance of democracy and liberalism in Europe. But the invasion of Ukraine completely reversed that.
In an instant, decades of ingrained passivity evaporated. The first real war in Europe since the destruction of WW2 hit Germans hard - and evoked deep memories of burnt-out cities and destroyed lives. But this war didn't create echoes for peace and mediation - it created the punishment for a response instead. Faced with an event that completely tore apart the fabric of Europe, the German government acted swiftly and in an unprecedented manner. Hard-hitting sanctions, provisions of military aid and the cancelling of the Nordstream 2 pipeline. And the German public seems to agree as well. A mere 14 per cent feel like the German response is too far - and 27 per cent believe it doesn't go far enough. Before the invasion, just 20 per cent were in favor of German aid - that number has skyrocketed to 61 per cent. There has been a surge in approval for the SWIFT exclusion, military aid to Ukraine, and crucially, the 100 billion euro budget
The Impact
The seemingly overnight reversal's implications are a turning point for the rest of Europe. Germany, the dove of Europe, is now a country ready - and willing - to be at the forefront of Europe. Gone is the nation that was unwilling to use its potential and importance for the security of Europe, the protection of its values; the Russian invasion has ensured that Europe's most populous country, its largest economy, is now finally ready to be its bulwark.
Ironically, while the shocking devastation of war turned Germany into a pacifist state, it is another atrocious, bloody war that has snapped it out of nearly three-quarters of a century of its non-aggression. Whether Ukraine falls or survives, the reality of the invasion means Russia - and any other external threats to Europe, face a hardened opposition.
Works Cited
Bittner, Jochen. "Opinion | The World Used to Fear German Militarism. Then It Disappeared. - The New York Times." The New York Times - Breaking News, US News, World News and Videos, July 23rd 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/23/opinion/the-world-used-to-fear-german-militarism-then-it-disappeared.html.
Eckert, Vera, and Kate Abnett. "Factbox: How Dependent Is Germany on Russian Gas? | Reuters." Reuters, Reuters, March 8th 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-dependent-is-germany-russian-gas-2022-03-08/.
Ellyatt, Holly. "Germany's Offer to Send 5,000 Helmets to Ukraine Provokes Outrage." CNBC, CNBC, January 27th 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/27/germanys-offer-to-send-5000-helmets-to-ukraine-provokes-outrage.html.
Sheahan, Maria, and Sarah Marsh. "Germany to Increase Defence Spending in Response to 'Putin's War' - Scholz | Reuters." Reuters, Reuters, February 27th 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-hike-defense-spending-scholz-says-further-policy-shift-2022-02-27/.
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