By: Raina Lath
What is happening between Russia and Ukraine?
Russian troops have been making their way to Ukraine’s border. Kyiv and the US have drawn concerns about Russia attacking Ukraine, so what exactly is happening?
On November 26th the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia was planning to overthrow Ukraine’s government. Moscow denied all allegations and blamed Kyiv and the US for the escalating tensions.
In response, Russia asserted the possibility of deploying troops on its own territory. It is insinuated that the Kyiv might be planning to seize back two eastern regions in the Donbas areas that have been controlled by pro-russian separatists since 2014.
Ukraine denies planning any such offensive stating that Russia has more than 92,000 troops massed near its borders for a possible attack. This build up of troops has prompted widespread concerns of Russia invading Ukraine which used to be part of the Soviet Union before its separation in 1991.
Russia Ukraine Border
So how likely is war?
Many sources including Western intelligence believe that Russia will not go to war. Instead, they believe a more realistic scenario is that President Vladimer Putin may utilise their military force in order to threaten Ukraine into showing that Russia is serious in defending its ‘red lines’. Russia had also stated that they refuse to accept any supply of NATO weapons to Ukraine or any NATO military presence. That being said, Putin is adept at escalating and de-escalating the crisis - which was apparent during thebuild-up of Russian troops near the Ukraine border and they subsequently pulled back. This way Russia can demonstrate their military presence to Ukraine and the world.
If war were to happen, what might it look like?
Russia's armed forces have 900,000 active troops compared with 209,000 for Ukraine, an advantage of more than four to one, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). But Samir Puri, senior fellow in hybrid warfare at the IISS, said the real advantage for Russia was that it already has proxies fighting in the separatist war in eastern Ukraine, this gives Russia the option to link up and extend the area under their control. However, if it came down to war, compared to 2014 when Ukraine lost Crimea to Russia without a fight, they now have a much stronger military. It also has tanks supplied from Washington and could ask the US for intelligence support. That being said, if NATO troops along with western troops come to help Ukraine, Ukraines military could potentially be powerful. But even so, Russia still has a very strong military with several more battle tanks than Ukraine.
Another thing that may prevent Moscow from going to war is their relations with the US. After the annexation of Crimea, the US imposed sanctions on Russia. Putin would risk the US imposing more painful measures if he invades Ukraine.
What is the US's Role in this?
NATO is also worried about Russia and Ukraine. Military alliance’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned on 30th November that NATO members should prepare for the worst when it comes to Russia and Ukraine.
“There is no certainty, no clarity about exactly what are the Russian intentions, and they may actually evolve and change,” the NATO chief added, noting “they’ve done it before” referring to the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014.
However, there are also some signs that Putin and his tanks are pushing for more talks with the US.
The head of the Russian International Affairs Council think-tank in Moscow (RIAC) had said, “At a meeting between Putin and Biden, neither will give clear commitments but there may be some tacit understanding on how far the US is ready to go in increasing its military support to Ukraine.” Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya also said "Whilst Putin has a flicker of hope that he can do a deal with Biden, he won't take any rash steps. But if he thinks it's all doomed, he could do the worst things we can imagine."
Sources:
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