By: Raina Lath
Over a month has passed since Russia invaded Ukraine. As tensions escalate many wonder how exactly this war will play out. So what are some possible scenarios?
Pro Russian government
The first possible scenario is Russian President Vladimir Putin implementing a pro-Russian government in Ukraine. Putin despises Ukraine's existing pro-Western administration. And due to its ambitions to join the EU and NATO, many anticipate he will establish a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.
It's unclear how or when/if that will happen, but Eurasia Group's base-case scenario for the next three months is for Russia to obtain "patchy control of eastern Ukraine, up to the Dnipro River," take Kyiv after a lengthy siege, and install a "Russian-backed puppet government."
As the conflict unfolds and Russia pulls out all the brakes to grab additional land, resistance against Russian soldiers is expected to become increasingly difficult.
Most commentators believe that once in power, Russia would replace President Volodymyr Zelensky's government with a pro-Russian one.
Partition of Ukraine
Some analysts believe that if Russia maintains only sporadic control over Ukraine, the country could be partitioned, especially as Russia becomes more ingrained in eastern Ukraine, in particular in the Donbas region, where it recognized the independence of two pro-Russian republics ahead of its invasion of the rest of the country.
Taras Kuzio, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society had written in an article that Moscow has indicated that it is aiming at “the complete military conquest of Ukraine followed by a partition and a massive purge of the civilian population.”
Complete insurgency
Most experts predict that Ukrainians will continue to oppose any puppet administration. This struggle would eventually develop into an insurgency, with those Ukrainians who remain in the nation aiming to overthrow any such dictatorship using all methods at their disposal.
Tim Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, is among those who keep a close eye on Russia. "Even if the formal military engagements finish, Ukrainians will fight long and fiercely." Putin's cruelty will be exposed for everyone to see on the news 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and on the internet."
Of course, there's a chance that a Ukrainian counter-offensive won't represent a substantial threat to Russian forces. After all, thousands of fighters are civilians who picked up guns and were ill-prepared.
The strategists emphasised that a Ukrainian insurrection may emerge in this situation.
NATO vs. Russia
Some officials warn that the violence in Ukraine may not be controlled. They caution that Nato member states' arms transfers to Kyiv, as well as Moscow's punishing sanctions, have increased the possibility of spillover to neighbouring countries, putting Nato in direct conflict with Russia.
Putin threatened countries seeking to "interfere" in the conflict with "consequences larger than any you have encountered in history," a statement largely interpreted as a threat to deploy nuclear weapons. Following that, Putin decided to raise the readiness level of Russia's strategic nuclear forces.
Meanwhile, Nato has bolstered force deployments in the Baltic states and other nations close to Russia, and alliance officials have warned of the potential for conflict.
The best possible solution?
Analysts believe that a complete withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Ukraine would be the greatest conclusion for the nation in its current predicament.
According to the Scowcroft Centre, Ukraine's defensive capabilities might be strengthened by NATO, allowing its military and civilian opposition to "overcome the odds and grind Moscow's advance to a halt" in their "rosiest" potential scenario for how the Ukraine conflict could end.
According to the Atlantic Council's strategists Pavel, Engelke, and Cimmino, in this hypothetical scenario, Putin would be prevented from overthrowing Kyiv's government and installing a puppet regime, while "the determination and skill of the Ukrainian resistance forces a stalemate on the battlefield that favours the defenders." But of course, this is the best possible solution and a miracle to say the least.
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