Written by Handa (Bobby) Jung, edited by Kimaya Ghoge
(https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast, retrieved October 17th 2020)
With the 2020 US election less than a month away, the UWCSEA Political Review has come up with its own predictions. Currently, we project Biden to win with 353 electoral votes compared to the incumbent Trump’s 185. This prediction is based on polling and numerous other factors such as COVID-19 developments, economic news and the Black Lives Matter movement. This article will analyse some important factors in this election and determine whether they favor the incumbent or the challenger.
The Economy:
With the advent of COVID-19, the US economy has seen its harshest contraction since the Great Depression. The economy is typically viewed as the single greatest factor influencing a reelection. The last three incumbents to lose reelection – Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Gerald Ford – all lost partially due to a weak economy. Carter and Ford lost due to their inability to fight off stagflation and Bush lost due to the early 90s recession. While the economy has been Trump’s greatest appeal to voters, the current recession has eroded this image. Despite it being one of the key issues voters consistently find Trump to be better suited for, a recent CNN poll has shown Biden leading 50% to 48%. If Trump manages to turn around the narrative of the bad economy in the final leg of the campaign and hammer in the supposed economic accomplishments of his administration, his fortunes might improve. Being a candidate whose appeal is largely dependent on his supposed economic prowess, bad economic figures are undoubtedly a bad reflection of Trump, and we believe that they hurt his election prospects across the board in every state.
Handling of COVID-19
There are few matters in this campaign that harms Donald Trump’s image as clearly as the COVID-19 pandemic, so much so that soundbites about it have become a clear part of Biden’s campaign. “4% of the world’s population, 25% of COVID deaths” is a staple of Biden’s speeches and Trump’s wide catalogue of mistaken gaffes and decisions have given Democrats easy points to pick on – from Trump’s statement that the virus would simply disappear to his claims regarding hydroxychloroquine. Though Trump has begun wearing a mask and has somewhat toned down his rhetoric, he still appears to lack empathy for ordinary Americans (an area Biden is viewed as strong in). Further, his erratic, bizarre actions suggest he does not understand the severity of the COVID-19 situation. Notably, after contracting the virus, Trump went on a ride outside of Walter Reed, removed his mask, and had to be brought back by the Secret Service. The current pandemic is one issue where it is nearly impossible to see Trump’s actions in a positive light. While he claims to have saved countless lives by closing down the country and blames the virus on China, these efforts are mitigatory as the figures are irrefutable – Democrats have used them to hammer home the message that Trump is incapable of leading the country over and over again, disadvantaging Trump’s reelection chances.
Racial Inequality and Police Brutality
In the midst of an eventful chapter in Trump’s presidency, an African American Minnesotan named George Floyd was brutally murdered by a police officer with a knee to the neck. The recording of the barbarous incident spread quickly through the news and social media, and protests against police brutality manifested in thousands of cities in the United States and abroad. This 2020 renewal of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement appears to be more popular than previous ones, with Pew Research Center recently finding that a majority of Americans approve of the movement. This finding seemed to go unnoticed by Trump, who took to defending the police and label BLM a “symbol of hate”. This seems bizarre, but is rather unsurprising. After all, Trump's base is averse to BLM. Though Trump has relented from his harsh rhetoric before upon discovering its political repercussions – notably adopting a mask – racial inequality and police brutality is not an area where he has reversed his position. In fact, a recent National Public Radio poll found that Biden leads Trump 56-38% on handling race relations. Though the movement has not been as prominent in recent months, Trump’s harsh rhetoric on the issue has not helped his campaign, and has instead presented Biden as a viable alternative. Thus, we believe this factor hurts Trump’s chances and helps Biden’s.
Projections for Swing States
In the United States’ Electoral College system, each state is assigned electoral votes’. All of the electoral votes are procured by the candidate who gains the majority of the vote. This means that a candidate may lose a state by 1 vote and not receive any electoral votes at all. Swing states are states in which the two major political parties have similar levels of support. This means that these states could reasonably be won by either Democrats or Republicans, giving them the capacity to ‘swing’ the election (change its outcome). In this election, the swing states are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. However, given the rather large differences in New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada, they will be excluded. Though Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all lean Biden this election, given how consequential they are, we will cover them.
Iowa and Ohio
Despite being carried by Obama in two elections, Iowa and Ohio swung heavily towards Trump in 2020. In fact, even Texas was more Democratic than Iowa in 2016. While Trump is an unpopular incumbent, Biden has struggled to gain support in this electorate that elected Trump overwhelmingly. Today, Trump holds a thin albeit consistent lead of 1.2% in Iowa which is down from 5% in June. Biden last led, but only by 0.1%, in June according to FiveThirtyEight. Due to Trump’s consistent lead, we believe Iowa will vote for Trump by a small margin. However, it is in such dead heat that either candidate can realistically win. The same goes for Ohio, where Biden leads by 0.7%. While we project a Biden victory in Ohio, Trump has by no means lost.
North Carolina and Arizona
North Carolina and Arizona have 15 and 11 electoral votes respectively and are states that both voted for Trump in 2016 by small margins, but where Biden is leading currently. Traditionally Republican states, Trump must absolutely win both to get to the 270 votes he needs to win. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden has a lead of 2% in North Carolina and 4.4% in Arizona. While both margins are small, Biden has never lost his leads so far and we project a Biden victory in both. He is aided by two down-ballot races which lean Democratic at the moment. In Arizona, astronaut Mark Kelly is running for the Senate and has seen large leads over incumbent Martha McSally. In North Carolina, governor Roy Cooper is popular and leads challenger Dan Forest by two digit leads, which is a rare feat in the state. As these two candidates are likely to win, voters are likely to write a preference for Biden as well when they write in their ballot.
Florida
The third most populated state and probably the most evenly tied state between Democrats and Republicans, Florida has been a swing state since 1992. Notably in the 2000 election, Bush’s victory hinged on the Sunshine state where he “officially” won by 537 votes after a manual recount was prevented by the Supreme Court. While it has not been as consequential in recent elections, the state is still extremely competitive. It voted for Trump in 2016 by a slim margin, was carried by Obama in 2012 and 2008, and voted for Bush in 2004. This year we believe Florida will vote for Biden based on polling and other factors. Though the state’s large retiree population leans Republican, due to Biden’s stronger favorability with older voters and Trump’s handling of the pandemic, a large number are expected to vote Democrat this election. Lastly, the Sunshine state is diverse and Trump’s disparaging remarks about Latinos is likely to hurt him. As of October 9th, Biden leads by 4.2 points and has since April.
Texas and Georgia
Texas and Georgia are two states with similar political characteristics. Both used to be part of the Confederacy and remained strongholds for Democrats until the late 20th century, when conservative Republicans were swept into office across the state. However, the two Republican bastions have seen increased support for democrats driven largely by fast population growth especially in the Hispanic populations and a large influx of young professionals to cities like Atlanta and Austin. However, despite polling showing Biden leading by 1.4% in Georgia and trailing by 1.7% in Texas, we believe that Trump will still carry both states (albeit with far smaller margins than in past elections). Though Trump’s support may not be strong in either state, the Democrats’ recent good polling may not translate to votes as both states have only become competitive this cycle. Biden may still win these states however, and if Trump is to be reelected he cannot lose either historically Republican state.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are the three ‘Blue Wall’ states that collapsed in 2016, sending Trump to the White House. Traditionally Democratic states, the three states are similar in many ways. All three are manufacturing hubs that have seen industrial decline in recent years and carry a large amount of electoral votes (46 in total). Reflective of Trump's special appeal to white working class voters who traditionally lean Democrat, all three flipped by small margins. In 2020 however, these states are under relentless focus by the Democrats. More than any other combination of states, these three were the ones that cost Clinton the victory and can ensure Biden an easy victory. The Democrats had their convention in Wisconsin recently and millions have been spent to wrench the states back from the Republicans. Of the so called Obama-Trump states (states which went for Obama before switching to Trump), Biden has had the most success as he not only has taken the lead, but has widened them as well. Biden has a lead since April in Wisconsin which sits at 7.2% currently, a lead in Pennsylvania since February that now stands at 7.3% and 8% in Michigan where he has led since February, all according to FiveThirtyEight. Given the decent leads, his association with Obama and the little time Trump has to narrow the lead, it seems highly unlikely that any of the three will remain in Trump’s column. Therefore, we give all three states and the election to Biden.
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