BRAZIL'S ELECTION 2022: THE EDGE OF DEMOCRACY
By: Henrique Vieira Soares
On the 2nd of October of 2022, Brazilians went to vote in the most polarized and important election since Brazil's redemocratization – after the country went under a military coup from 1964 to 1985. On one side, there is Brazil's former left-wing president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party), who governed the country from 2003 to 2010 and had his name involved in corruption scandals. On the opposite side, the current far-right president Jair Messias Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), whose government is considered one of the worst in Brazil's history, seeks for reelection after defeating a Workers' Party candidate in the 2018 elections – in which Lula was unable to run since he was in prison after being convicted on corruption charges which were later annulled.
Brazil's 2018 election runoff results: Bolsonaro got 55.13% of total votes and Haddad got 44.87%, showing how divided the country already was at the time.
The political tension before the 2018 elections
In order to understand the chaotic political context of Brazil that led to Bolsonaro's election in 2018, it is necessary to go back in time. Two years before, in 2016, Lula's successor, Dilma Rousseff (PT), was impeached after being charged with using a state-controlled bank to finance social programs. In these programs, the government would give money to a bank, which would distribute it to the population. However, the government started to defer bank payments, which made the bank responsible for financing most of the program with its own money, leading to R$ 34,2 billions (6,5 billion dollars) in late payments in 2014. This practice is known as "pedaling": delaying payments to banks in order to present better economic indicators to the financial market, in order to project the country's economic situation as better.
Moreover, the corruption investigation called Operation Car Wash – considered by many the biggest corruption scandal in Brazil's history – was another relevant factor for the impeachment to happen. The Operation Car Wash investigated executives from the oil company Petrobras for accepting bribes from construction firms in return for awarding them contracts at inflated prices. It was also found that some members of the Workers' Party (PT) and of other parties were involved in this corruption scheme, including, at the time, former President Lula, who was later found guilty and sentenced, in 2018, to 12 years in prison for corruption. Lula admits there was corruption in Petrobras, as proof shows, but denies he was involved in it. Also, his sentence came at the same time he was the leading opinion polls for that year's presidential election, which he claims was all part of a political strategy to prevent him from running for office and, consequently, to elect Bolsonaro as president. Despite all the scandals and controversies, Lula still is, today, the main politician in the left-wing and his popularity reflects the economic growth Brazil had during his and part of Dilma's government, as poverty rates went from 13.6% in 2001 to 4.9% in 2013.
After 580 days in prison, Lula's corruption convictions were annulled. He was found not guilty of some accusations and others were annulled because the right jurisdiction had not been followed, as well as the judge responsible for his trial was considered biased in the process.
Bolsonaro's government
"The dictatorship [in Brazil] mistake was torturing without killing"
"I don't rape you because you don't deserve"
"I would rather my son to die in an accident than him to be gay"
The claims above were all publicly made by Bolsonaro, showing clearly his position towards human rights, women, and the LGBTQIA+ community. The key question, then, is how does someone who thinks like that rise to power?
The corruption scandals added to heavy unemployment and economic crisis were perfect for Bolsonaro to rise. Given the context, a considerable amount of the population was against the Workers' Party, and they saw in Bolsonaro the savior capable of defeating Lula's political party and putting an end to corruption, as he was a big critic of the Workers' Party and Brazil's two previous leftists presidents. Therefore, his polemic claims caught the attention of the conservatives in Brazil and his speeches gave hope to most people who were suffering to survive, given the economic crisis.
It is hard to understand, however, how someone like Bolsonaro, with a terrible experience as being deputy for 27 years and having only two of his bills approved, could solve the crisis, as he did not have a clear strategy. Unsurprisingly, this lack of experience and capability was reflected on his government, as prices increased and purchasing power decreased. Also, his insensitivity during the Covid-19 pandemic showed his incapability of leading a nation, since he discouraged the use of masks, social distancing and the vaccine.
"I am not a gravedigger" - Jair Bolsonaro's response when told by a journalist about the large number of deaths by Covid-19 in one day.
The 2022 elections
During the political campaign for the 2022 elections, it was known that the two main forces of the dispute were Lula and Bolsonaro – as opinion polls revealed. However, all polls pointed that Lula had a bigger advantage than Bolsonaro, and people were surprised when the official results came out:
In order to win a presidential election in Brazil, a candidate must achieve more than 50% of the votes. So, as none of the candidates achieved that, a runoff round is happening on the 30th of October – and until there I am afraid to say nothing is won.
After a political campaign characterized by accusations and violence, as Bolsonaro supporters killed others who support Lula, the outcome of this election is quite unpredictable, even though people want to be optimistic about Bolsonaro's defeat.
It is quite easy to choose a side in this election: Bolsonaro represents a threat to democracy, as he has made undemocratic claims, and Lula represents respect for democracy. Many may not want to vote for Lula because of the corruption scandals involving his and the Workers' Party name; unfortunately, at this point it is essential to look at the bigger picture and make a conscious decision. If Lula is elected, at least there will be space for opposition if something wrong happens. However, if Bolsonaro wins again, no one actually knows if people will have the opportunity to protest.
Comments